Navigating Predictions and Trends: Insights into the Mortgage Market for October 2024

As we step into the fourth quarter of 2024, October has arrived! If you’re aiming to snag the most popular Halloween candy in your state before it sells out, we’ve got you covered. In Georgia, Skittles reign supreme, coinciding with Jimmy Carter’s celebration of his 100th birthday.

Here in Las Vegas at the ACUMA event, discussions are buzzing around topics such as servicing values, the longevity of loans, and prepayments. While predicting the exact payoff date of a loan or how long someone will live remains uncertain, the conversation gets interesting when considering investor decisions. For instance, without the ability to foresee mortgage rate drops, why would an investor pay a premium of 103 for a loan? And is it wise to pay extra for a VA loan given the refinance patterns typical of the program?

Conferences are hubs of valuable information exchange, and today at 11AM PT (2PM ET), Garth Graham, Senior Partner, along with STRATMOR Senior Advisors Sue Woodard and Brett McCracken, will be sharing their insights from recent events. They’ll also discuss upcoming conferences and offer tips on maximizing their value.

The podcast, sponsored this week by Candor, is available now. Candor’s cutting-edge Expert

Navigating Market Volatility: Key Insights from the Latest MBS Recap

Moderate Bond Losses as Powell Maintains a Firm Stance

In market terminology, the Federal Reserve is labeled as dovish when their statements are generally favorable for interest rates. Conversely, when their stance is less favorable, it is termed hawkish. Observers felt Powell’s remarks two weeks ago struck a hawkish tone. Hopes for a more dovish approach today were dashed as Powell did not signal any immediate relief for the bond market. One key takeaway was his reminder that the Fed is in no rush to reduce rates and remains data-dependent. While this stance isn’t new, it left bonds marginally disappointed.

Market Movement Recap

09:40 AM: Overnight choppiness led to slight weakness, with a modest early recovery. Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) declined by 0.09 points, and 10-year Treasury yields increased by 1.6 basis points to 3.766%.

11:17 AM: MBS losses extended to 0.19 points, and 10-year Treasury yields rose to 3.775%, up 2.5 basis points.

02:14 PM: The market hit its weakest point, with MBS down over 0.25 points and 10-year yields climbing

Navigating the 2024 Mortgage Rate Landscape: Key Insights and Trends

Mortgage rates have been on a gradual upward trajectory since the Federal Reserve reduced rates two weeks ago. While we’ve delved deeply into understanding this seemingly contradictory situation, we can now shift our focus back to the typical influences on the rate market. The consistent increase in rates continued into the new week, marking the highest levels since September 9th. However, it’s crucial to note that, in a broader context, current rates are still among the lowest seen in over a year, barring the last few weeks. Today’s rate uptick is attributed mainly to Fed Chair Powell’s speech, where he emphasized the Fed’s cautious stance on further rate cuts. This message echoed sentiments from the Fed meeting two weeks prior, although some market players were perhaps expecting a more dovish tone. Looking ahead, the upcoming week is packed with economic data releases that could spur rate volatility daily. The most significant of these is scheduled for Friday with the jobs report release at 8:30 am ET.

Navigating the Latest Shifts in Mortgage Backed Securities: What Today’s Trends Mean for Borrowers

The momentum has been building, and the focus is shifting in the bond market. Over the past few years, inflation reports have been vying for attention alongside the jobs report. However, the market is now reverting to the traditional trend seen over the past decades, where the Employment Situation report holds paramount importance. This shift is being underscored by the Federal Reserve’s messages, indicating a more composed stance on inflation and a heightened emphasis on the labor market. As we anticipate Friday’s jobs report, other reports and events throughout the week also deserve attention. Today features a lighter schedule, with the highlight being a speech by Powell at 1:55 pm ET.

Navigating Market Volatility: Strategies for Mortgage Professionals in 2024

This week marks the highly anticipated Fat Bear Week, capturing the attention of nearly 600 mortgage professionals gathered in Las Vegas for the ACUMA event. Conversations are largely dominated by the excitement of Fat Bear Week and the challenges of navigating the sprawling city. However, a more pressing issue on the table is the intensifying storm activity, most recently highlighted by Hurricane Helene, which has tragically caused fatalities in five states. In response, Fairway Independent is committing $1 million towards the essential relief efforts. CEO Steve Jacobson has called on the major IMBs and wholesale lenders to match this contribution, emphasizing the industry’s duty to collectively support regions in need.

In other industry news, Candor has sponsored this week’s podcast, which you can find linked in today’s content. Candor’s sophisticated Expert System AI has flawlessly underwritten over 2 million mortgages, providing a warranty on every credit risk decision to alleviate repurchase concerns. Also featured is an interview with Andy Duane from Polunsky Beitel Green on potential changes to the Basel III capital requirements.

Shifting focus to loan programs and services, Longbridge Financial, LLC (NMLS #957935) introduces the Blueprint for Reverse Mortgage Success. This new initiative aims to help mortgage professionals tap into the reverse

Understanding the Latest Shift in Mortgage Rates: Insights and Implications

As the season progresses, there’s a notable trend of things being portrayed differently than they actually are. Lenders are discussing new loan limits, but no official changes have been made. Meanwhile, news reports claim that rates have dropped this week, but in reality, they’ve risen. Additionally, rumors of a major refinancing surge are circulating, but that isn’t accurate either.

Rates did indeed climb slightly higher, remaining near long-term lows. A chart tracking 10-year Treasury yields, which often serve as a benchmark for longer-term rates like mortgages, highlights the recent positive momentum and the mild correction following last week’s Fed rate cut. Mortgage rates appear even milder; one measure, Freddie Mac’s weekly survey, erroneously reported a drop in rates this week. Unfortunately, Freddie’s figures don’t match the current reality. Under normal circumstances, discrepancies like this can be reconciled using daily numbers from MND, but not this time. For a more in-depth analysis, it’s clear: Mortgage rates are definitely not lower this week.

Regarding loan limits and home prices, some lenders are prematurely advertising new conforming loan limits around or above $800k. However, the official conforming loan limits won’t be announced until the end of November. Hence, any current claims about these

Navigating Market Uncertainty: Today’s Insights on Mortgage Rates

A few months ago, major inflation reports had a significant impact on the bond market, comparable to the jobs report. As CPI and PCE inflation data have stabilized over the past five months, the focus has shifted toward the jobs report and other labor market indicators for influencing bonds and Federal Reserve decisions. However, inflation still plays a role until it becomes negligible, and we’re not there yet. Today’s inflation report was slightly better than expected, helping bonds to maintain their overnight gains.

Looking at the recent behavior of inflation data, it’s evident that the trend over the past several months has been showing signs of improvement. This trend becomes clear when examining the month-over-month data, rather than the annual charts, which still reflect last year’s higher inflation months.

The key takeaway remains consistent, even when considering unrounded figures.

Navigating Mortgage Rates Amid Financial Market Turbulence: Insights and Strategies

Moses can be considered the first to use technology; he carried two tablets that were connected to the cloud. However, technology is a double-edged sword. While having everything on your phone is convenient, it can quickly become problematic if you lose your device or it gets confiscated. It’s generally advised not to voluntarily hand your phone to the police. The rise of technology has boosted the popularity of Zoom and Team calls, though many still prefer in-person events and workshops. For instance, STRATMOR is hosting a well-attended Consumer Direct Workshop focused on the CD channel in Dallas this November.

Mortgage servicing companies have access to a wide array of technological tools. The granularity of current data allows more entities than ever to identify which loans and borrowers are candidates for refinancing. Those holding the servicing rights are in the best position to analyze this data and reach out to borrowers, although loan officers maintain personal relationships with clients.

Today’s podcast, sponsored by Silk Title Co., discusses technology in the lending industry. Silk Title Co. supports centralized, tech-driven, and process-oriented operations, emphasizing borrower experience, standardization, and collaboration. An interview with CNET Money’s Katherine Watt reveals that 40 percent of U.S. adults are pessimistic about mortgage rates becoming

Interest Rate Volatility Causes Market Turbulence: Insights from September 26, 2024

Currently, the bond market is still grappling with its trajectory following last week’s Federal Reserve announcement. Early-week trading on Monday and Tuesday experienced significant morning volatility that gave way to calmer and more robust afternoons, sparking optimism that the market’s reaction to the Fed’s moves had stabilized. However, Wednesday brought overnight losses that extended throughout the day, indicating the market’s adjustment phase might not yet be finished. Thursday displayed a mixture of trends, including gains overnight, morning losses, and a commendable afternoon rebound. A key factor influencing these movements has been the continuous impact of relevant economic data.

Economic Data and Events:

– **Jobless Claims**: Reported at 218k, compared to the forecast of 225k and a previous count of 219k.
– **Durable Goods Orders**: Recorded at 0.0, significantly better than the expected -2.6 but down from the previous 9.8.
– **Core Durable Goods**: Registered at 0.2, beating the forecast of 0.0 and improving from the previous -0.2.
– **GDP (Q2, revision)**: Remained steady at 3.0, consistent with the previous estimate.

Market Movement Recap:

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Navigating Rising Mortgage Rates: What You Need to Know Today

We created the industry’s first daily mortgage rate index based on actual lender rate sheets, without subjective distortions. In comparison, the longest-standing mortgage rate index in the U.S. is a weekly survey that often includes subjective distortions and quirky methodology. As a result, we frequently find ourselves clarifying the actual state of mortgage rates, especially on Thursday afternoons when the weekly survey is published. In almost every instance we recall, there have been quantifiable explanations for periodic discrepancies. However, today stands out as a notable example where Freddie Mac’s weekly survey data appears completely off base. Freddie reported a decrease in rates for the week— which, according to their methodology, covers the five days from Thursday to the following Wednesday. This means the average rate from September 19th to 25th was supposedly lower than from September 12th to 18th. The issue is that rates were clearly and quantifiably higher during that period, even if only slightly. Typically, when we apply Freddie’s method to our own daily rate tracking, we can at least rationalize any directional differences. What matters most for mortgage rate indices is the change in rates, not the absolute levels.