Understanding the Market Trends: July 2024 MBS Recap

Focus on Data Over Politics, For Now

Just days ago, there was a discussion on whether the presidential debate or the month-end/new-month trading dynamics had a greater impact on the market. Although political factors were a popular topic among analysts, recent evidence suggests this emphasis may have been misplaced. Today provided compelling proof when a widely circulated newswire hinting that Biden might reconsider his candidacy received absolutely no market reaction. In stark contrast, the release of the ISM Services data triggered significant market movement, resulting in the highest Treasury trading volume since the PPI and jobless claims data were released on June 13th. As markets resume after the holiday break on Friday morning, attention will remain on economic data, especially with the upcoming non-farm payrolls report.

Economic Data and Events:

ADP Employment: 150k vs. 160k forecast, 157k previous

Market Movement Recap:

08:39 AM: Flat overnight with a stronger start to early trading. MBS up 1 tick (0.03). 10-year Treasury yield down 2.6 basis points at 4.406%.

01:40 PM: Trending sideways after a strong reaction to weaker ISM data. MBS up about a quarter point

“Understanding the Current Mortgage Rates and Housing Market: June Recap”

The bond markets responded positively to this morning’s economic data, which included a significant decline in producer price index (PPI) at the basic level and a considerable increase in unemployment claims. However, traders could argue that the initial market reaction was overly exaggerated, based on later developments. It wasn’t until the 30-year bond auction that Treasury yields managed to hit new daily lows. Strangely, Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) didn’t follow suit, a discrepancy that’s further explored in our recap video. One possible explanation relates to potential shifts in the broader interest rate momentum. Still, it’s uncertain whether this deviation represents a new trend, as it will require several months of data verification to confirm.

Economic Data / Events:

– PPI (core) monthly change: 0.0 (expected 0.3, previously 0.5)
– PPI (core) annual change: 2.3 (expected 2.4, same as previous)
– Jobless Claims: 242k (expected 225k, previously 229k)

Market Movement Recap:

– 09:18 AM: Modest strength overnight with further gains post-data; MBS up 7 ticks (.22), and 10-year down 4.2bps at 4.276.
– 10:59 AM: Slight decline following data-driven rally; MBS still up 5 ticks (.16), and 10-year down 4.1bps at 4.278.
– 11:46 AM: Minor recovery with a 10-year down 6.4bps at 4.256 and MBS up close to a quarter point.
– 01:05 PM: Daily-high post 30-year bond auction; 10-year down 9.5bps at 4.224, MBS up 10 ticks (.31).
– 03:11 PM: MBS trend maintained in PM, remaining up by 10 ticks in 5.5 coupons, with 10-year primarily stable, down 8bps at 4.239.

“Unveiling Economic Report Impact: A Recap of Mortgage Backed Securities Activity for June 12, 2024”

Highlighted in our morning review, bonds experienced a substantial surge after the Consumer Price Index (CPI) information was released, revealing an unrounded monthly inflation rate of 0.163%, contrasting with a predicted 0.3%. This positive upward trajectory remained steady until the Federal Reserve’s meeting, where the key focus was the outlook for the 2024 rate cuts. They projected a reduction to a single cut instead of previously indicated three. The Fed’s Chairman, Powell, failed to offer any encouraging news during the press conference and seemed relatively unimpressed by the month’s data. Despite these expectations, the market reaction indicated that there may have been some hope for a minor rate rally gesture. By the end of the trading day, nearly half of the CPI-based gains had dissolved, yet the day’s performance was commendable on a larger scale.

Economic Data / Event Updates:

Monthly core CPI: 0.2 vs forecasted 0.3, previous 0.3

Yearly core CPI: 3.4 vs predicted 3.5, prior 3.6

Market Movement Overview:

At 09:29 AM, the market was noticeably stronger post-CPI data, with no gains slipping away. The 10-year yield decreased 15bps to 4.271, and Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) showed a rise of over 3/8ths in coupons of 6.0 and nearly 5/8ths in coupons of 5.5.

At 12:37 PM, the market remained steady and was improving slightly at best, with the 10-year yield dropping to 4.257 and MBS increasing by half a point.

At 2:31 PM, the release of the Fed’s dot plot triggered bi-directional trading. This initiated a bounce-back after the initial drop when the press conference began, with the 10-year yield at 4.268 and MBS increasing by 1.44%.

At 3:26 PM, the MBS rose 0.31 in 6.0 coupons and 0.44 in 5.5 coupons, and the 10-year yield decreased to 4.311.

04:02 PM, MBS were still up by a quarter point but nearly came halfway back to pre-CPI levels. The 10-year yield was down slightly by 7bps to 4.33.

“Figure Welcomes New Leadership: Michael Tannenbaum Steps in as CEO”

Mike Cagney, the co-creator and erstwhile CEO, is set to morph his professional role to become the executive chairman.

“Exploring the Dynamics of Mortgage Rates: An In-Depth Market View from April 2024”

Since last Tuesday, when it touched the peak of long-term yields, the bond market has been mostly stable. The trend for the 10-year treasury bonds has remained quite steady, with the upper limit being approximately 4.65 and the lower limit coming in at about 4.57. The yields began this week close to the upper limit, but there was an improvement by the end of the first two days. Yields started likewise today, although improvements haven’t matched the preceding days.

The overnight session saw the beginning of a downward trend due to a mix of factors. This includes a high level of uncertainty ahead of the Bank of Japan’s announcement, expected on Thursday after the market closes. The main cause of concern springs from the possibility of an official sell-off of treasury bonds to guard against further depreciations in the Yen/USD currency exchange.

The losses persisted following the release of robust IFO data from Germany, with US and European yields indirectly influencing one another.

Despite this, US yields have been characteristically slowly climbing since yesterday’s low point. Neither the IFO data, nor the response to the US Durable Goods report had a significant knock-on effect.

Today’s most anticipated event is the 5-year treasury auction at 1 pm Eastern Time. This event doesn’t normally trigger major reactions, but it’s certainly capable of bringing about intraday volatility or a change in the course of the intraday trend.

“Introducing TomAI: The Breakthrough AI Chatbot Revolutionizing Real Estate Coaching”

Presently, the innovative chatbot is exclusively accessible to those who are clients of Tom Ferry’s coaching services.

“Exploring the Dynamics of the Mortgage Market: A Comprehensive Guide to March 22, 2024 Developments”

In the current dynamics of the bond market, traders are actively shifting positions to leverage opportunities presented by inflation figures and employment market data. Beyond Federal Reserve communications, which serve to clarify or strengthen data interpretations, there hasn’t been much else happening. This week’s Federal Reserve activity has solidified the existing cap on yields or rates and it’s improbable that we’ll test the recent low unless another round of substantial data comes in. For this, the wait extends at least until next Friday (PCE), given that the bond market will be closed that day, it might be better to shift focus to the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report set for the following week.

The day has started well with yields dropping over 5 basis points, yet this should be considered in line with the trend illustrated by the chart mentioned earlier. The same trading range and ‘lower low’ pace has been observed in the last three days.

No major events are anticipated in the near future, thus the market continues to operate as usual.

“Exploring the Impact of Current Events on Mortgage and Housing Industries”

Ever wonder what life is like post-mortgage banking? Jonathan Corr, previously of Ellie Mae/ICE, now finds himself steeped in the world of Broadway productions, seemingly saying goodbye to the finance sector completely. Broadway productions and mortgage production share a common trait – they don’t come cheap. It’s often easier to lose money than to save it (a sentiment that every government administration can relate to), but there might be some tactics for turning a profit in 2023. This includes cutting off low performing assets, shrinking loan officer commissions, ditching unprofitable or inefficient tech, merging back-end operations with other lenders, and adopting outsourcing. On the other hand, consumers and potential borrowers have also been wrestling with financial challenges. According to the Q4 2023 TransUnion Credit Industry Insights Report, consumer credit balances have shot up to historical heights as people tap into these funds to navigate through the recent cost inflation wave.

On a side note, this week’s podcast is brought to you by Visio Lending. As the nation’s leading lender dedicated to buy and hold investors, Visio Lending has sealed deals for over 2.5 billion in loans specifically for single-family rentals, vacation rentals included. The podcast features an insightful interview with Jeff Ball from Visio Lending discussing term financing for stable rentals.

Moreover, Guaranteed Rate had chosen Evocalize to boost localized, digital marketing for its loan officers to secure new clients and lure referral partners across numerous digital platforms. Famous for its cutting-edge technology tapped by key real estate and mortgage tech platforms, Evocalize will leverage their know-how to amplify Guaranteed Rate’s marketing efforts. This partnership is set to bring about impactful benefits such as enriched lead generation, lowered marketing expenses, and heightened customer engagement, thereby fueling business growth for Guaranteed Rate and its loan officers.

“Examining the Housing Market: Changes, Impacts, and the Future Outlook”

Borrowers who secured intermediate adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) 3, 5, or 7 years ago are now refinancing due to an increase in their rates. Some individuals, particularly in Las Vegas during the ICE and Lender Toolkit conference, might argue that choosing adjustable-rate mortgages was a wise move from 1982 to 2021, the current climate suggests otherwise. Las Vegas is crowded, but it doesn’t stop some humor, like when I asked a McDonald’s employee if the Shamrock Shakes were made with real shamrocks, he went to check with his manager.

These employees at McDonalds earn $14-17 per hour, which falls below the area’s average income. It’s a stark contrast to Vancouver, BC, which is 1,200 miles north, where the Squamish First Nation is making an enormous impact on affordable housing. They’re using their reserves in central Vancouver to construct a dense, affordable housing complex made up of 11 towers and 6,000 apartments spread in a 10-acre area, which hasn’t sat well with the nearby beach community.

Moreover, the Musqueam, Squamish, and Tsleil-Waututh Nations are planning a 12-tower project on the city’s west side. In related news, this week’s podcast is brought to you by Visio Lending, the country’s leading lender for long-term investors, boasting a portfolio of over $2.5 billion in closed loans for single-family vacation and rental properties. The episode features a conversation with Steven Plaisance of Gateway First Bank, discussing the priorities of mortgage executives and the role of advocacy groups.

“Exploring Future Predictions for Mortgage Rates: An In-depth Look at 2024 Scenarios”

Delving into intriguing numerical data, one might be surprised to learn that 22-year-old Billie Eilish has secured double the number of Oscars (2) compared to film legend Martin Scorsese who, at 80 years old, has one. In an interesting comparison, Samuel L. Jackson, Tom Cruise, and Johnny Depp collectively have none. In the lending and vendor industry, the figures showed a different story in 2023, as overall production experienced a significant slump, dropping by 63 percent from $4.4 trillion in 2021 to $1.6 trillion. The data reveals a stark decrease in unit numbers due to an increase in average loan amounts. As a dramatic oversimplification, targets of cutting staffing and expenditures by 63 percent may be questioned, with predictions stating an increase to $2 trillion this year from the MBA. To combat this, lenders and vendors are diversifying by adding adjacent businesses like insurance and title, steering clear of overly competitive markets or low margin products, implementing cost-cutting measures, and revamping business models. Despite the complexity of these tasks, many remain proactive in these efforts.

One example is Revolution Mortgage, a nationwide lender that recently joined forces with OptiFunder to achieve warehouse automation across all operations. According to Revolution CEO and Founder Tony Grothouse, they’ve been using OptiFunder for allocation management and are now employing it to streamline their entire funding process. Since its founding in 2019, OptiFunder has vastly improved the mortgage industry by automating a myriad of processes, such as wire data checks, collateral shipping, and more. Supporting connections to over 150 warehouse lenders and investors, OptiFunder offers state-of-the-art automation from loan funding to sale.

In another news, this week’s podcast features an interview with money manager Vijay Marolia, who offers insights on the affordable housing shortage. The episode is facilitated by Lender Toolkit through its AI Underwriter and Prism borrower income automation tools, which promise loan approvals in under two minutes.