Shifting Trends in Builder Confidence How January 2025 is Shaping the Housing Market

January saw a minor uptick in homebuilder confidence, measured by the National Association of Homebuilders Housing Market Index (HMI). However, the changes over the last couple of years are more aptly described as minor adjustments in a broader context. Throughout 2022, HMI experienced a steep decline due to a sharp rise in interest rates, and since then, it has largely leveled off with smaller fluctuations. This pattern is known in market terms as consolidation, indicating a potential shift either towards an increase or further decrease. Barring an event similar to the Great Financial Crisis, it’s uncertain what might cause builders to feel more pessimistic than they’ve been since the pandemic’s onset. Thus, this period of consolidation is often seen as a potential lower limit. The timeline for a shift depends significantly on factors like interest rates and inflation. Additional insights from the latest NAHB data include: 30% of builders reduced prices in January, consistent with the six-month trend, with an average price cut of 5%. Sales incentives were used in 61% of transactions, in line with recent patterns.

Analyzing Housing Trends: The Latest on Starts, Permits, and Inventory Dynamics

The US Census Bureau released its December New Residential Construction report, providing insights into building permits, housing starts, and completions. Though construction activity is below the peak levels from three years ago, it remains slightly above what was typical before the pandemic—a contrast to many metrics in the housing and mortgage sectors. While the previous month saw housing starts at the lower end of 2024’s spectrum, the latest data indicates a recovery to levels not seen since February. This resurgence was largely driven by the multifamily sector, particularly in the South, which added 128,000 new units. Nationwide, multifamily housing starts climbed by 155,000 units, reaching a 12-month high of 418,000, and single-family starts increased by 34,000, totaling 1.05 million.

Pending Home Sales Trend: Insights for Buyers and Sellers in 2024

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) provides monthly updates on existing and pending home sales, with the latter focusing on signed contracts yet to close. These pending sales are considered a reliable early indicator of the next month’s existing home sales. The housing market is currently in need of positive trends, and November’s pending sales report offers some optimism despite overall low historical activity levels. This marks the fourth consecutive month of gains for the index, reaching its highest point since February 2023. Contract signings increased by 2.2% compared to the previous month and 6.9% from the same period last year, even as mortgage rates remain high. This shift indicates the first significant break into positive year-over-year figures since early 2022. According to NAR’s Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, buyers have adjusted their expectations surrounding mortgage rates and are now making the most of the increased availability of homes. With mortgage rates averaging over 6% for two years, buyers no longer anticipate a significant drop in rates and are better positioned to negotiate as the market moves away from a seller’s market. Regionally, the South saw the most growth with a 5.2% rise in contract signings compared to the previous month, while the Midwest and

Understanding December 2024 Trends in New Home Sales and Their Market Impact

Anyone familiar with U.S. home construction and sales data is aware that the South region significantly outpaces the other three census divisions combined. Recently released figures for November highlighted this trend, with the South responsible for 417k new home sales on an annualized basis out of a total of 664k nationwide, representing 62% of all sales. In contrast, two months prior, the South registered 472k out of 736k total sales, a 64% share. However, in October, the region’s sales declined to 366k of a total 627k, comprising 58% of all activity, indicating a temporary dip in its usual contributions to new home sales. This fluctuation can often be explained by major weather events or natural disasters impacting the housing market data.

A closer look at the regional breakdown in October reveals this drop. Although there was a 13.9% recovery from October for the South, its sheer volume of sales helped offset significant declines in other regions, including a 41% decrease in the Northeast and a 7.5% decline in the West, leading to a modest 5.9% rise in national figures. At an annual pace of 664k, this matches the second

Navigating the Current Real Estate Landscape: Insights from December 2024’s Existing Home Sales Report

Following the recent hike in interest rates due to the Federal Reserve’s announcement, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) has reported that existing home sales have reached their highest seasonally adjusted rate since March. This marks a 6.1% increase compared to this time last year, representing the most significant year-over-year improvement since June 2021. While this uptick is promising, particularly when reflecting on the past 18 months, it’s important to keep it in perspective. A sizeable percentage increase can sometimes overshadow the actual numbers involved, highlighting the reality that the market is still navigating a challenging environment for home sales. This scenario is reminiscent of the current state of mortgage applications, suggesting a potential turning point where conditions might improve moving forward. The NAR is optimistic about the future, as the market sees more buyers, an expanding job market, increased housing inventory, and an adjustment to mortgage rates settling between 6% and 7%. The true impact on home sales will become clearer as they adjust to mortgage rates that have risen above 7%, a factor not fully accounted for in the recent analysis.

Navigating Mortgage Market Trends: Insights and Strategies for 2024

Christmas lights have always brought joy during the holiday season. They humorously remind some of the supporters of certain politicians; clustered together, yet not all functioning properly and those that do might not be the brightest. Interestingly, some smart readers have shared their insights on a topic from a recent discussion about dealing with unexpected guests behind the shower curtain. Karen F., spouse of a renowned economist, suggested that gaining the upper hand with the element of surprise allows you to face an intruder directly, and recommended using a household item as a makeshift weapon.

Switching to home real estate matters, many sellers have interesting opinions about using agents. Half believe that hiring an agent for their next sale would be more appealing if they didn’t have to cover the buyer’s commission fee. Ironically, 47 percent of sellers feel their property might have fetched a higher price had they worked with an agent. Ultimately, 80 percent of those who skipped hiring an agent experience remorse, with 54 percent wishing they had enlisted an agent’s help.

For those interested, today’s podcast is available, and the week’s lineup is sponsored by Bundle, a company providing legal documents tailored to the real estate, mortgage, and title sectors. Listeners can enjoy a 20 percent discount throughout the

Understanding the Surge in New Home Sales: Insights and Implications for Buyers

The Census Bureau’s New Residential Sales report is known for its large margin of error, with today showing a 12.8% margin. Even with the report indicating a dramatic 17.3% month-over-month decrease in home sales, the minimum expected decline stands at 4.5%. It’s crucial to recognize that home sales have maintained a fairly stable range over the past two years. The most noteworthy point to consider, however, comes from analyzing the geographical distribution of the recent declines. The South experienced a significant 27.7% drop in home sales, the lowest since October 2023, while other regions each had at least three lower sales months within the last year. This substantial decline in the South aligns with the timing of Hurricane Milton, a category 5 storm that hit in October, which would naturally disrupt sales activity. Surprisingly, this weather impact was not factored into the economic models used by forecasters.

Navigating the Complex Terrain of Home Price Trends and Market Shifts

In the United States, there are two major home price indices that provide insights into housing market trends on a monthly basis, though results are reported with a two-month delay. This means the data for September is currently available. The two indices are:

1. The S&P Case Shiller Index, known for its narrow focus, which helps in early trend detection but tends to exhibit higher volatility.
2. The FHFA Index, from a U.S. government agency, which encompasses a much larger number of transactions, making it the most comprehensive and reliable source for home price updates. This index plays a crucial role in adjusting the annual conforming loan limit.

Regarding September’s numbers, the Case Shiller data showed a 0.3% decrease, while FHFA’s broader index indicated a 0.7% increase. Such differences are typical. Both indices, however, point to an annual appreciation rate of around 4%.

The conforming loan limit (CLL) is significant as it sets the maximum loan amount that housing agencies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac can back. This backing provides benefits such as streamlined automated underwriting and often lower interest rates. There is a base CLL, but it can be up to 150% higher in the most

Navigating the Current Landscape of Home Sales: Trends, Inventory Challenges, and Price Dynamics

Recent discussions around new home sales, construction activity, builder sentiment, and mortgage applications have highlighted a consistent theme in the real estate market. The latest figures from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) regarding October’s Existing Home Sales align with this narrative. These sales remain at historic lows, exhibiting a flat trajectory. The significant decline in 2022 is largely attributed to the surge in interest rates during that year. Post this challenging period, both sales and rates have seen minimal movement on the whole.

An intriguing aspect of the data lies in inventory trends, where existing home listings typically hit their highest in summer and dip to their lowest around the start of the year. However, in 2023, inventory peaked later than usual, and this year’s peak has yet to materialize. This raises questions about whether more homes are being put on the market or if there’s a decrease in buyers. Insights from Redfin’s housing data, while not identical to the Existing Homes data, suggest that the slowdown in sales is linked more to the build-up of inventory. Charts demonstrate that new listing levels for 2024 are closely mirroring those of 2023. This month’s NAR Existing Sales report includes several other key points that further underline these trends.

Latest Trends in New Residential Construction: What November 2024 Signals for the Housing Market

Economic data is often updated on a monthly basis, covering aspects like inflation, consumer sentiment, employment figures, unemployment rates, and retail sales, among others. This frequent release schedule also applies to various housing industry reports. Today, we’re looking at the latest figures for New Residential Construction, which, as expected, show little excitement.

Key figures include:

– Housing Starts, the initial phase of construction, are at an annual pace of 1.311 million, compared to a forecast of 1.33 million and a previous rate of 1.353 million.

– Building Permits are reported at 1.416 million, slightly below the forecast of 1.430 million and a previous rate of 1.425 million.

On a broader time scale, these numbers don’t significantly deviate from past trends. Although there has been a reduction from the highs between late 2020 and early 2022, both metrics remain robust compared to 2019 levels. One perspective on the slowdown in construction is to acknowledge the sharp rise in mortgage rates to the 6-8% range, which coincided with a marked decrease in building permits. However, mortgage rates aren’t the sole factor; other challenges like affordability, labor and material costs, and