Navigating the Current Real Estate Landscape: Insights from December 2024’s Existing Home Sales Report

Following the recent hike in interest rates due to the Federal Reserve’s announcement, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) has reported that existing home sales have reached their highest seasonally adjusted rate since March. This marks a 6.1% increase compared to this time last year, representing the most significant year-over-year improvement since June 2021. While this uptick is promising, particularly when reflecting on the past 18 months, it’s important to keep it in perspective. A sizeable percentage increase can sometimes overshadow the actual numbers involved, highlighting the reality that the market is still navigating a challenging environment for home sales. This scenario is reminiscent of the current state of mortgage applications, suggesting a potential turning point where conditions might improve moving forward. The NAR is optimistic about the future, as the market sees more buyers, an expanding job market, increased housing inventory, and an adjustment to mortgage rates settling between 6% and 7%. The true impact on home sales will become clearer as they adjust to mortgage rates that have risen above 7%, a factor not fully accounted for in the recent analysis.

Navigating Mortgage Market Trends: Insights and Strategies for 2024

Christmas lights have always brought joy during the holiday season. They humorously remind some of the supporters of certain politicians; clustered together, yet not all functioning properly and those that do might not be the brightest. Interestingly, some smart readers have shared their insights on a topic from a recent discussion about dealing with unexpected guests behind the shower curtain. Karen F., spouse of a renowned economist, suggested that gaining the upper hand with the element of surprise allows you to face an intruder directly, and recommended using a household item as a makeshift weapon.

Switching to home real estate matters, many sellers have interesting opinions about using agents. Half believe that hiring an agent for their next sale would be more appealing if they didn’t have to cover the buyer’s commission fee. Ironically, 47 percent of sellers feel their property might have fetched a higher price had they worked with an agent. Ultimately, 80 percent of those who skipped hiring an agent experience remorse, with 54 percent wishing they had enlisted an agent’s help.

For those interested, today’s podcast is available, and the week’s lineup is sponsored by Bundle, a company providing legal documents tailored to the real estate, mortgage, and title sectors. Listeners can enjoy a 20 percent discount throughout the

Understanding the Surge in New Home Sales: Insights and Implications for Buyers

The Census Bureau’s New Residential Sales report is known for its large margin of error, with today showing a 12.8% margin. Even with the report indicating a dramatic 17.3% month-over-month decrease in home sales, the minimum expected decline stands at 4.5%. It’s crucial to recognize that home sales have maintained a fairly stable range over the past two years. The most noteworthy point to consider, however, comes from analyzing the geographical distribution of the recent declines. The South experienced a significant 27.7% drop in home sales, the lowest since October 2023, while other regions each had at least three lower sales months within the last year. This substantial decline in the South aligns with the timing of Hurricane Milton, a category 5 storm that hit in October, which would naturally disrupt sales activity. Surprisingly, this weather impact was not factored into the economic models used by forecasters.

Navigating the Complex Terrain of Home Price Trends and Market Shifts

In the United States, there are two major home price indices that provide insights into housing market trends on a monthly basis, though results are reported with a two-month delay. This means the data for September is currently available. The two indices are:

1. The S&P Case Shiller Index, known for its narrow focus, which helps in early trend detection but tends to exhibit higher volatility.
2. The FHFA Index, from a U.S. government agency, which encompasses a much larger number of transactions, making it the most comprehensive and reliable source for home price updates. This index plays a crucial role in adjusting the annual conforming loan limit.

Regarding September’s numbers, the Case Shiller data showed a 0.3% decrease, while FHFA’s broader index indicated a 0.7% increase. Such differences are typical. Both indices, however, point to an annual appreciation rate of around 4%.

The conforming loan limit (CLL) is significant as it sets the maximum loan amount that housing agencies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac can back. This backing provides benefits such as streamlined automated underwriting and often lower interest rates. There is a base CLL, but it can be up to 150% higher in the most

Navigating the Current Landscape of Home Sales: Trends, Inventory Challenges, and Price Dynamics

Recent discussions around new home sales, construction activity, builder sentiment, and mortgage applications have highlighted a consistent theme in the real estate market. The latest figures from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) regarding October’s Existing Home Sales align with this narrative. These sales remain at historic lows, exhibiting a flat trajectory. The significant decline in 2022 is largely attributed to the surge in interest rates during that year. Post this challenging period, both sales and rates have seen minimal movement on the whole.

An intriguing aspect of the data lies in inventory trends, where existing home listings typically hit their highest in summer and dip to their lowest around the start of the year. However, in 2023, inventory peaked later than usual, and this year’s peak has yet to materialize. This raises questions about whether more homes are being put on the market or if there’s a decrease in buyers. Insights from Redfin’s housing data, while not identical to the Existing Homes data, suggest that the slowdown in sales is linked more to the build-up of inventory. Charts demonstrate that new listing levels for 2024 are closely mirroring those of 2023. This month’s NAR Existing Sales report includes several other key points that further underline these trends.

Latest Trends in New Residential Construction: What November 2024 Signals for the Housing Market

Economic data is often updated on a monthly basis, covering aspects like inflation, consumer sentiment, employment figures, unemployment rates, and retail sales, among others. This frequent release schedule also applies to various housing industry reports. Today, we’re looking at the latest figures for New Residential Construction, which, as expected, show little excitement.

Key figures include:

– Housing Starts, the initial phase of construction, are at an annual pace of 1.311 million, compared to a forecast of 1.33 million and a previous rate of 1.353 million.

– Building Permits are reported at 1.416 million, slightly below the forecast of 1.430 million and a previous rate of 1.425 million.

On a broader time scale, these numbers don’t significantly deviate from past trends. Although there has been a reduction from the highs between late 2020 and early 2022, both metrics remain robust compared to 2019 levels. One perspective on the slowdown in construction is to acknowledge the sharp rise in mortgage rates to the 6-8% range, which coincided with a marked decrease in building permits. However, mortgage rates aren’t the sole factor; other challenges like affordability, labor and material costs, and

Impact of Rising Rates and Low Inventory on Existing Home Sales in 2024

The housing market was moving steadily at the start of 2020, but the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic brought about unforeseen fluctuations. Initially, there was a sharp rise in demand and house prices. However, as interest rates began to climb (in relative terms) and the initial excitement started to fade, home sales plummeted to levels not seen since the Great Financial Crisis by the close of 2022. Sales have mostly hovered around these lows since then. In broader terms, this stability suggests the market data may not warrant extensive analysis until there’s a clear change in trends. However, for those interested in significant details, consider the following points:

Home prices increased by 3.0% compared to the previous year, marking the 15th consecutive month of growth.

Inventory is expanding more rapidly than sales are declining.

First-time buyers represented 26% of all sales, matching the record low, yet not dramatically different from the 2023 average of 32%.

Cash transactions made up 30% of sales, a rise from 26% in the prior month.

Navigating the Mortgage Market in 2024: Strategies for Success Amidst Changing Dynamics

At the ACUMA event in Las Vegas, vendors brought an array of promotional items, from Richey May’s lock picking kit to Byte’s locally crafted sweets. This mirrors the abundance of freebies typical at many conferences. Byte stands out by supporting local artisans, unlike many products sourced internationally, such as from China. On the topic of imports, the Fed’s efforts to control inflation are limited. Today, approximately 50,000 members of the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) initiated a work stoppage due to ongoing negotiations with the United States Maritime Alliance, which represents ocean carriers. As a result, operations at East and Gulf ports from Maine to Texas have ceased, disrupting the flow of various goods. The duration of this strike could lead to product shortages. (Today’s podcast, sponsored by Candor, highlights Candor’s AI-driven underwriting system, which has successfully completed over 2 million error-free underwrites, backed by a warranty to eliminate repurchase concerns. It also features an interview with Jaime Seale from Clever, discussing a survey where 50 percent more sellers indicated they’d use an agent for their next home sale if they didn’t have to cover the buyer’s commission fee.).

Emerging Trends in Mortgage and Housing Finance: What to Watch in 2024

With the autumn equinox marking the official end of summer, we’re heading into a season filled with Columbus Day, Halloween, Veteran’s Day, and Thanksgiving. Here in Chicago, known for its festive spirit, I collaborated with Garth Graham of STRATMOR to observe market reactions to the recent drop in interest rates. Many lenders see this as a potential uptick in purchase activity, but Garth notes a possible disparity in who will benefit from this market improvement. He speculates that recent legal changes affecting real estate agents could lead to industry consolidation even as the market grows, a point he elaborates on in his article.

Speaking of legal issues, the Loan Originator Compensation Rule, a persistent challenge for the mortgage industry since its inception in 2011, faces renewed criticism. In his latest column, attorney Brian Levy likens the rule to the Berlin Wall, denouncing its anticompetitive nature that hinders mortgage commission negotiations, to the detriment of consumers.

Additionally, today’s podcast, sponsored by Silk Title Co., explores various industry topics. Silk Title Co. caters to lenders with centralized operations, a tech-driven approach, and a collaborative mindset. The podcast features ALTA’s Chris Morton discussing a previously rejected Fannie Mae pilot program that aimed

Understanding the Surge: Analyzing the Recent Uptick in New Home Sales

May proved to be a challenging month for the housing market. Existing home sales experienced a slight downturn, decreasing by 0.7 percent from April. However, the new home sales segment faced more significant struggles. According to data from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development, newly constructed single-family homes were sold at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 619,000 units. This represents an 11.3 percent drop from April and a 16.5 percent decline compared to May 2023. It’s worth noting that April’s sales figures were revised upward from an initial estimate of 634,000 units to 698,000.

Analysts had predicted stronger performance, with a consensus forecast of 650,000 units according to a survey by Econoday. On a non-adjusted basis, 56,000 homes were sold in May, down from 62,000 in April.

The inventory of homes for sale saw improvement. At the end of May, there were 481,000 homes available, an increase of nearly 13 percent from the previous year. Given the current sales pace, this inventory represents a 9.3-month supply, which is a 14.8 percent increase from April