Category Archives for "Mortgage Industry News"

“Unraveling the Impact of Trade Tensions and Stock Liquidations on the MBS Market: An In-depth Analysis”

After a rather monotonous overnight trading, the markets began with levels virtually unchanged due to the absence of Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures. The lack of December’s CPI data, scheduled for release on Thursday morning, is a common theme for the initial three days of this week. The only possible disturbance this week could be the start of the Treasury coupon auction cycle, commencing today at 1pm ET with three-year notes. Although not the most influential event in terms of market movement, it has triggered responses in the past. Currently, bonds are in a consolidation phase, following a correction from the low yields experienced at December’s close.

Overall, there’s a necessity to remain wary of the potential that the correction period is just commencing. The accompanying chart illustrates the recent consolidation process (highlighted by yellow lines). Either way, a significant deviation in the CPI could either validate or nullify the current red line trend.

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“Exploring the Persistent Gloom in Markets: Decoding Factors Influencing Mortgage-Backed Securities”

As the new week began, bonds started at static levels, experienced a significant increase within the constraints of Friday’s figures before a steady, gradual sell-off. This resulted in a slight improvement by the end of the day. Analysts grappled with the uncertainty of what is driving these price movements, given that no major market motivators were reported in the news or appeared on the economic calendar. An NY Fed survey indicating muted inflation corroborated the morning increases; however, the timing was incongruous. Similar irregularities were noticed with various Fed comments throughout the day. The main takeaway of the day was an impression that it was focused mainly on establishing new positions for 2024 and in the more immediate timeframe, preparing for the forthcoming week’s Treasury auctions and CPI data.

Market Progress Summary

At 09:44 AM in a tranquil trading environment, there was no change to slight strengthening overnight. The 10yr was down by 2.8bps at 4.023, and MBS increased by 2 ticks.

Further gains were recorded at 11:58 AM. The 10yr decreased by 7.3bps at 3.978, and MBS increased by a quarter point.

However, by 04:58 PM, the mid-day gains were lost as trading moved into after hours. At this time, the 10yr decreased only 2bps at 4.03, and MBS increased just 1 tick (0.03).

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“Exploring the Impact of Inflation on Mortgage Rates in 2024: A Comprehensive Overview”

The previous week observed various pivotal economic occurrences attempting to sway interest rate trends, although no evident victory was noted. Rates closed the week marginally elevated, with most of the rise seen at the start of the week. The pattern of bidirectional volatility persisting without significant alterations keeps its pace as the fresh week commences. Differing from the past Friday, there were no substantial, planned happenings that noticeably impacted the rate trends. Rather, the bond market initiated preparations for the events to unfold in the upcoming days. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) scheduled for this Thursday could be the most significant event of the week. As the most frequently traded inflation report, the CPI has been associated with some of the most drastic interest rate fluctuations in the last 2 years. However, such responses necessitate a result deviating significantly from the economy forecasters’ consensus. In simpler terms, the CPI has the POSSIBILITY of triggering a considerable reaction, but it is contingent on the report’s outcome. In the interim, the U.S. Treasury auction cycle is set to serve as a prelude. Over the coming 3 days, a vast quantity of Treasuries is set to go under the hammer (with results announced shortly past 1pm ET). If the demand is robust, rates could lean towards the lower end of their recent range preceding the CPI and contrary if otherwise.

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“Exploring The Latest Mortgage Trends and Updates: A Review of Policies, Events and Market Influences”

With nearly 39 million inhabitants, California hosts about an eighth of the entire U.S. population, a number exceeding that of Canada. It’s notable that a considerable percentage of Californians are from ethnic minority groups, and one in every four was not originally born in the U.S. Particularly in Northern California, many are involved in real estate and lending industries, making Federal Reserve forecasts a keen interest.

Primary dealer banks have now shifted their projections for the Federal Reserve to conclude its quantitative easing to the fourth quarter, a trend noted in a New York Federal Reserve Bank survey. If this happens as predicted, the Fed’s portfolio will decrease from the existing $7.764 trillion to $6.75 trillion. This could occur through maturing securities, early repayment of mortgage loans, or by the Fed liquidating those securities. The market has anticipated this change, a highly favourable development.

Be sure to catch our latest podcast, supported by Truework this week. Truework streamlines processes by consolidating all verification methods into a single platform which benefits lenders by minimizing process interruptions, sustaining competitive borrower experience and reducing the costs associated with income verification. This episode includes an interview with Richard J. Traub from Smith, Gambrell & Russell about the commercial real estate industry and its relevance to the residential sector.

Let’s delve into Broker and Lender Services, Programs, and Software.

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“Unpacking the Shifts in Bond Market and Mortgage Rates: A Recap of January 5, 2024”

In a somewhat rare occurrence, Friday saw market shifts prompted by the jobs report and ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, only for these movements to be nullified by the day’s end. The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index had the more notable impact, perhaps due to the jobs report’s lackluster strength and the Index revealing the lowest employment figures since July 2020. Nonetheless, the impact on bonds was minimal, particularly beneficial for Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) that are not subject to the auction cycle concerns of Treasuries.

Key data and events included:

The nonfarm payrolls posted 216k versus a forecast of 170k and previous figure of 173k. The unemployment rate was 3.7%, better than the forecasted 3.8%. However, the participation rate dropped by 0.3%, which suggests a rise in unemployment. The ISM Services PMI was 50.6, lower than the forecasted 52.6 and the previous 52.7. The ISM Service employment was at its lowest since July 2020, and Service Prices were 57.4 against a previous 58.3.

Examining market movements, by 08:57 AM, there was additional selling after the jobs report resulting in MBS decreasing a quarter point on the day, and a 5bps rise in 10yr to 4.055. The ISM data brought more gains at 10:11 AM. But by 12:35 PM, the post-ISM growth began to fade. At 02:14 PM, a level of stability was recorded, although the end of the trading day saw MBS levels back to their starting point and Treasuries up to 4.051. This might be due to apprehension over the upcoming auction cycle and curve steepening favoring shorter durations.

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“Keeping Pace with the Ebb and Flow: A Close Analysis of Mortgage Rates in 2024”

The notable employment report that usually releases on the first Friday of every month plays a crucial role in influencing interest rate instability. Today was no different, but it is worth noticing that the potential magnitude of the impact doesn’t always match its real effect. Initially, it gave an impression of justifying its influence when the report indicated a surprising increase in job creations, which typically leads to higher interest rates. Consequently, the bonds correlated with mortgage rates started to escalate after the release of these figures. However, other data facets in the report helped to counterbalance this effect in no time.

Moreover, other relevant economic indicators contributed to managing the initial reaction. According to the Institute for Supply Management, the ISM Services index, an extensive measure of the service sector’s wellbeing, dropped to levels signaling negligible growth. The employment element of the index, which carries more significance, reached its lowest since the covid restrictions, making the bond market react more readily than to the jobs report.

Despite a slight dip in the afternoon, the overall impact was reasonably favorable for mortgage rates with the bond market ending virtually unaltered. The day concluded with the average mortgage lending rates being slightly lower than the previous day.

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