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Category Archives for "Mortgage Industry News"

Navigating Market Volatility: Key Insights from December 2024 MBS Trends

This week’s bond market showed notable stability and strength following last week’s decline, even with broader market pressures. Monday and Tuesday saw bonds making a slight rebound, particularly after mixed Retail Sales data was released. Despite some ups and downs, bonds remained steady as investors turned their attention to the upcoming Federal Reserve announcement. It is widely expected that the Fed will reduce interest rates, and the updated dot plot, a significant indicator of rate expectations updated quarterly, is anticipated to signal a higher rate path than in September. While Fed Chair Powell is likely to echo his previous remarks, the market remains uncertain about how much the Fed’s outlook could influence investor sentiment. Although this Fed meeting doesn’t appear as critical as the one in September, its outcomes could significantly influence market trends heading into year-end.

Economic Data and Events:

– Retail Sales: 0.7% vs expected 0.5%, previous 0.4%
– Retail Sales excluding automobiles: 0.2% vs expected 0.4%, previous 0.2%

Market Movement Summary:

– 08:41 AM: The market opened slightly weaker with little change after mixed retail sales data. Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) fell by an eighth, and the 10-year Treasury

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Navigating the 2024 Year-End Surge in Mortgage Rates: What Homebuyers Need to Know

The mortgage market has experienced a steadier week this time around, with Monday seeing a slight decrease compared to last Friday’s rates, and today’s figures remaining largely the same. Although the average lender’s rates are still elevated compared to the start of the month, this stability suggests there is less appetite for returning to November’s higher levels. However, we might see some fluctuations tomorrow afternoon following the Federal Reserve’s announcement on interest rates. It’s important to note that the Fed doesn’t directly control mortgage rates, and a rate cut by the Fed doesn’t necessarily translate to an equivalent drop in mortgage rates. The market has already factored in the anticipated rate cut, so any changes tomorrow will likely result from other elements of the Fed’s announcement, like the quarterly rate outlook (notably the dot plot) or insights from Fed Chair Powell’s press conference following the announcement.

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Navigating the Mortgage Landscape: Key Market Insights for the Week Ahead

Yesterday’s S&P Global PMI data was surprisingly robust, and today’s Retail Sales numbers followed suit, also surpassing expectations. Despite this, the bond market remained relatively stable. The bond market’s more positive response today can be attributed to the Retail Sales components not meeting all forecasts, specifically the “excluding autos” segment, which came in at 0.2 compared to the anticipated 0.4. This helped support bond resilience early on. At the start of the day, 10-year yields were marginally up, but by 11 a.m., they had moved into positive territory.

Looking at the broader picture, there is an ongoing trend of rising yields. However, today marks another effort to disrupt this upward trend, similar to what was observed after last Wednesday’s CPI data release, as highlighted in the accompanying chart.

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Winter 2024 Rate Trends and Their Impact on Mortgage Markets

The progression of numbers can often be deceptive and full of surprises. A great illustration of this is the classic “Wheat and Chessboard” story, a concept brought to mind by Eric D. Similarly surprising is the fact that from 2022 to 2023, the Hispanic community was responsible for almost 71% of the population growth in the United States. This surge, largely driven by Hispanic births, was reported in the latest Vintage 2023 Population Estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau. Hispanic numbers, encompassing all races, increased to slightly over 65 million, marking a 1.16 million (or 1.8 percent) rise compared to the previous year, significantly impacting the nation’s overall population growth of 1.64 million in 2023. In contrast, the non-Hispanic population saw a modest increase of just 0.2 percent, hindered mainly by a reduction in the non-Hispanic White subgroup, the largest within the non-Hispanic category and the only one to show a decline. It’s important to celebrate our diversity. As of now, the largest racial or ethnic group in the United States is the “White alone non-Hispanic” population, accounting for 58% (down

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Navigating the December Market: Key Takeaways from the Mortgage-Backed Securities Recap

Last week, the bond market seemed determined to decline despite economic indicators suggesting otherwise. However, the new week began with stronger economic figures that only briefly affected the bond’s performance. Both Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) and Treasury bonds dipped back to the previous Friday’s lowest point but found stability in the afternoon, eventually nearing their unchanged state. Although trading volume was low and there was little volatility on a larger scale, it was encouraging to witness a departure from the prior week’s consistent weakness.

Economic Data/Events:

– NY Fed Manufacturing came in at 0.20, compared to a forecast of 12 and a previous level of 31.2.
– S&P Services PMI was reported at 58.5, exceeding the forecast of 55.7, while the previous level was 56.1.

Market Movement Recap:

– At 09:46 AM, bonds were slightly stronger overnight but lost ground during domestic trading, with MBS rising by 2 ticks and the 10-year yield decreasing by less than 1 basis point to 4.385%.
– By 12:15 PM, bonds attempted to rebound from their lowest points, with MBS down by 1 tick and the 10-year yield rising

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Understanding the December 2024 Trends: Key Insights on Mortgage Rate Fluctuations

Last week saw an upward trend in mortgage rates, with increases recorded each day. Surprisingly, the economic data didn’t provide clear justification for this rise; in some cases, data that typically would lower rates coincided with increases by day’s end. This week, however, has started differently. Although Monday’s key economic data suggested rates should increase, the average lender reported slightly lower rates compared to last Friday, marking a minor win for borrowers. Admittedly, the change is minimal, and many lenders saw no difference.

Looking ahead, Wednesday poses heightened volatility risks as the Federal Reserve prepares its policy announcement. Of the eight annual Fed meetings, four come with updates on each member’s rate projections, often sparking significant rate movements, and this meeting is one such occasion. Market participants expect the Fed to indicate a slower pace of rate cuts compared to their September outlook, and some of the recent rate increases reflect this anticipation.

Nonetheless, the Fed isn’t the only factor influencing rates. Other economic reports can sway rate trends, and the Retail Sales report, scheduled for release tomorrow morning at 8:30am ET, is the next key data point to watch.

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Navigating Volatility: Insights on Mortgage Trends and Market Shifts December 2024

In the overnight session, bonds experienced a slight improvement, but this momentum was short-lived as domestic trading quickly nullified these gains by the morning. However, there seems to be a pause in selling activities, keeping levels near unchanged. If this stabilization persists, it could suggest that rates may remain steady before the Federal Reserve’s announcement on Wednesday. Importantly, bonds appeared set to maintain their overnight gains until the release of the stronger-than-expected S&P Services PMI at 9:45 am. It’s beneficial to understand the reasons behind any bond weakness, unlike last week’s uncertainty.

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Navigating the Latest Mortgage Market Trends: Key Insights from December 2024 MBS Recap

Why Have Bonds Seen So Much Selling?

The bond market has experienced a perplexing week, marked by consistent climbs in yield. Despite this trend, the reasons behind this shift remain elusive and widely debated. Although Europe faced challenges, EU bonds didn’t decline as sharply as those in the US, suggesting that the cause isn’t solely linked to European factors. Economic data doesn’t seem to be the culprit either; surprisingly, bond traders initially bought bonds based on this data only to reverse their decisions later, an atypical pattern. This leaves us to consider more complex and speculative factors, such as year-end portfolio adjustments, cautious stances ahead of the Federal Reserve’s announcements, and various factors influencing curve trades.

Economic Data and Events

Import Prices recorded a 0.1 increase against a -0.2 forecast and matched the previous figure of 0.1.

Export Prices remained unchanged, defying the forecast of a -0.2 decline but less than the previous 1.0 figure.

Market Movement Overview

Early in the trading day, yields showed initial strength but weakened alongside European markets, with mortgage-backed securities (MBS) dropping by 2 ticks and the 10-year Treasury yield rising by 1.5 basis points to 4.346.

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Navigating Mortgage Rates in December 2024: Key Insights and Trends

It’s undeniable: the past week was difficult for both mortgage rates and overall interest rates. After reaching their lowest in six weeks last Friday, mortgage rates ticked upward consistently over the following five days. This shift is closely connected to the bond market, as mortgage rates align with bond movements. Bonds fluctuate for various reasons, but the primary driver is typically economic data. However, this week presented a conundrum—economic indicators didn’t predict the extent of the rate increases we witnessed. Beyond economic data, the reasons for rate changes become less clear, tangled in complex bond market dynamics. Influences outside the domestic economy have been affecting traders’ bond strategies, such as year-end financial reporting requirements and preparations for the upcoming Federal Reserve rate announcement. Depending on the outcome of this announcement next Wednesday, we could either see relief or a continuation of the current trend.

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Navigating the Mortgage Market: Key Insights for December 13, 2024

This week has been tough for bonds, with rates climbing each day despite some neutral data releases. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) both met expectations, and jobless claims were higher than anticipated. Interestingly, the largest rate increases occurred on days with these seemingly benign data points. Friday hasn’t provided any major data, just the import/export prices report, traditionally having little influence, yet bonds are still under pressure.

There seems to be underlying factors contributing to this week’s bond market weakness that aren’t directly linked to data. Speculation suggests that factors like investors adjusting positions ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting or year-end balance sheet limitations could be at play. While these theories are hard to confirm, recognizing this downtrend remains important for now.

Looking forward, predicting bond market movements is always uncertain, but there are some positives to consider. First, there’s technical support as yields have now filled an earlier gap from late November. Some analysts suggest this could signal a potential rebound.

Additionally, bond yields have fluctuated within a long-established trend channel over the past year, and they’ve now reached the upper boundary of this range. While these trend channels aren’t definitive, should rates start to stabilize or decrease next week, these technical factors could support

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