Category Archives for "Mortgage Industry News"
Quiet Day Follows Fed Meeting
After the significant events of yesterday, today unfolded with a level of calmness we all appreciated. The bond market experienced declines, primarily concentrated at the longer end of the curve. This helped minimize the impact on Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS), which are currently more aligned with the middle segment of the curve. Economic data released in the morning presented a mixed picture and had lesser negative implications than initially perceived. Overall, today seemed to be a stabilizing period following Wednesday’s turmoil. Looking ahead, Friday’s focus will be on the monthly PCE inflation report, known for its potential to stir the markets, although it rarely has a dramatic effect.
Economic Data and Events:
– GDP came in at 3.1 compared to the forecast of 2.8 and the previous 3.0.
– Philly Fed Index recorded -16.4 against a forecast of 3.0 and a prior -5.5.
– Philly Fed Prices rose to 31.2 from the previous 26.6.
– Jobless Claims stood at 220k, better than the forecasted 230k and previous 242k.
– Continued Claims were 1874k, slightly below the expected 189
We recently received some anonymous feedback on our rate commentary, reminding us that our message might not always be clear, or worse, could be misunderstood. We frequently discuss how the bond market anticipates Federal Reserve rate cuts, especially when there’s a high probability of these cuts, as was the case with the recent reduction. Our commentary pointed out that the market had already accounted for the anticipated Fed rate cut, meaning that current mortgage rates already reflected this expectation. This statement solely considered the Fed Funds rate changes. The following explanation clarified that if interest rates were to fluctuate unexpectedly, it would be due to other aspects of the Fed’s announcement, such as their quarterly rate outlook or subsequent discussions led by Fed Chair Powell. Indeed, these additional elements were responsible for the notable increase in rates recently. For those interested in exploring this topic further, detailed coverage is available.
Continue readingWhenever I encounter a headline featuring the words “housing” and “crash” together, it strikes me as an attention-grabbing tactic intended to draw readers in. For example, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) released data on the state of first-lien mortgages within the federal banking arena during Q3 2024. According to the OCC’s Mortgage Metrics Report for the period, 97.4 percent of these mortgages were up-to-date and performing well by the end of the quarter, a minor improvement from 97.3 percent the previous year. Homeowners generally have the financial capability to repay, significant equity exists, and interest rates remain predominantly low. Those concerned should perhaps focus more on renters aspiring to purchase a home. It often seems that the optimal moment to invest in real estate was earlier, as current affordability is lacking. ATTOM’s fourth-quarter 2024 U.S. Home Affordability Report indicates that compared to historical norms, median-priced single-family homes and condos continue to be less affordable in most regions. This trend persists as home ownership now demands increasingly larger portions of household income, following a three-year streak of escalating U.S. home prices. For more insights, one could explore the Q
Continue readingThe outcomes from the Fed’s recent update were twofold. Firstly, the Fed is nearing the end of its rate-cutting cycle more swiftly than initially expected in September, prompting significant sell-offs in both bonds and stocks. Secondly, there’s confirmation of a shift in focus back to inflation, moving away from concerns over the labor market as highlighted by Powell. This shift aligns with the Fed’s revised inflation outlook for 2025, underlining ongoing concerns.
Overall, the key takeaway is that interest rates are unlikely to decrease significantly without a substantial reduction in inflation. This translates into one factor driving yields upward and another restraining them from declining.
Today’s analysis zeroes in on how the market reacted to the increased media attention surrounding the government funding bill. If you’re curious about its impact on yesterday’s market softness, note that the spending bill news emerged before the Fed’s announcement, with no apparent spike in activity or bond market fluctuation. While market attention was primarily on the Fed, the idea that fiscal issues contributed to market weakness is technically plausible. However, historically, a government shutdown tends to benefit interest rates.
Continue readingThe recent Federal Reserve announcement was more hawkish than anticipated by the financial markets. The bond market had been bracing for a tightening in the Fed’s dot plot, which outlines the projected trajectory for interest rates. Although the magnitude of this expected shift was uncertain, the actual change turned out to be more significant. The median projection for the Fed Funds Rate by the end of 2025 rose from the low 3% range to just under 4%. Additionally, Fed Chair Jerome Powell reinforced this outlook during his press conference, indicating a new phase in policy-making that includes the possibility of delaying rate cuts. He also acknowledged that current rates might be closer to a neutral level than previously thought. The bond market plummeted quickly following the announcement of these projections and continued to drop as Powell fielded questions.
On the economic front, housing starts were recorded at 1.289 million, below the forecast of 1.34 million and the previous 1.312 million. Building permits came in at 1.505 million, exceeding expectations of 1.43 million and up from the previous 1.419 million.
In terms of market movements, early domestic trading saw a slight recovery with mortgage-backed securities (MBS) rising by
Continue readingToday serves as a clear example that when the Federal Reserve cuts rates, it doesn’t necessarily translate to lower mortgage rates. In fact, mortgage rates moved unfavorably after today’s Fed announcement. The average mortgage rate increased by at least 0.20% since earlier in the day, and as lenders are still adjusting their rates, this figure could change slightly. Nevertheless, the average 30-year fixed rate for top-tier conventional loans is expected to comfortably surpass 7%. This rate hike isn’t directly linked to the Fed’s rate cut; that was a widely anticipated move and the least surprising element of today’s events. In financial markets, when expected events happen, they tend to be priced in beforehand, which can influence long-term rates like mortgages independently of the Fed’s immediate actions. What’s crucial for mortgage rates is the broader outlook on Fed policy, rather than just one rate change. The issue today arose from the Fed’s updated economic projections and the “dot plot,” which reflects each member’s rate predictions. Compared to the previous projection, today’s dot plot suggests significantly higher rates by the end of the upcoming year, particularly in 2025, where there’s a noticeable shift from the low-to-high 3 percent range.
Continue readingAs December began, mortgage rates reached their lowest point in six weeks. This decline was largely concentrated in the final week of November, which spurred a noticeable increase in refinance applications the following week, as reported by the Mortgage Bankers Association’s application survey. The latest data shows that the refinance index has remained relatively stable, which suggests that the elevated activity seen previously has persisted to some extent. However, when compared to a minor surge in refinancing activity back in September, this recent trend is far less significant, especially when viewed against historical refinancing booms. The situation may become more challenging as the latest Federal Reserve announcement has not been well-received by the rate market, leading to a quick rise in mortgage rates. As a result, the average lender’s rates have returned to the highs experienced in early November. In contrast, purchase applications have experienced minimal changes, with little noteworthy movement over the past year. Additional insights from the current data include: refinance applications made up 46.7% of the total, slightly down from 46.8% previously; the FHA share of applications increased to 17.6% from 16.5%; the VA share decreased to 15.3% from 16.3%; and rates climbed to
Continue readingRecent data indicates that the economy has been growing steadily. Improvements in the labor market have been observed, though the unemployment rate has slightly increased while staying competitive. Some headway has been made toward the 2 percent inflation target, although inflation remains moderately high. The primary goals are to achieve full employment and maintain inflation at 2 percent in the long run. The associated risks in reaching these employment and inflation targets appear to be balanced. The economic future remains uncertain, prompting close monitoring of risks related to employment and inflation. As a measure to support these aims, the central committee has opted to reduce the federal funds rate target range by a quarter percentage point to between 4-1/4 percent and 4-3/4 percent. They will carefully evaluate new economic information and risks before making further rate adjustments. Additionally, gradual reductions in holdings of Treasury securities, agency debt, and mortgage-backed securities will continue. Committed to fostering maximum employment and re-establishing 2 percent inflation, the committee will monitor changes in economic data to make informed policy decisions. They are prepared to amend monetary policies if new risks threaten their objectives. The committee’s evaluations will consider numerous factors, including labor market trends, inflation dynamics, and both financial and international developments.
Continue readingOvernight, bonds weakened slightly, but have been making a gradual recovery in the morning trade. The movement has been more erratic for mortgage-backed securities, with 5.5 coupons losing most of their early morning gains by 10:45am ET, only to rebound close to peak levels shortly after 11am. In contrast, 10-year yields have shown a steadier recovery to slightly stronger positions. All this activity is occurring within a narrow band without significant external drivers. The market is primarily focused on what remains the day’s main event: the Federal Reserve’s announcement and dot plot release at 2pm, followed by the press conference at 2:30pm.
Continue readingWhen a woman responds with What?, chances are she’s offering an opportunity to rethink your words. Change is constant, and now discussions are abuzz with concerns of a potential government shutdown. If I were to guess, the decision will be postponed. On the state front, there’s an ongoing debate about how much states should intervene in managing free market dynamics for renters and potential homeowners. All eyes are on Oregon, where new state-level proposals aim to tackle these challenges. The question remains: Can the government effectively manage free market forces better than the market itself?
First-time home buyers are finding affordability increasingly daunting, leading many, especially younger individuals and families, to consider renting as a temporary solution. Yet the aspiration of owning a home endures for many. The decision to rent or purchase a home depends on various factors, making the financial calculations complex. The New York Times has even developed a financial calculator to assist with this decision-making process.
However, decisions about housing aren’t simply based on numbers. Considerations such as the quality of schools, neighborhoods, commuting convenience, outdoor areas, and lifestyle play significant roles in these choices. This week’s podcast, sponsored by Visio Lending, delves into various aspects of the real estate market. Visio Lending is known for its
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