“Unraveling Market Insights: A Comprehensive Recap of Mortgage Developments on January 22, 2024”

Gentle Rise, No Specific Cause

It was a gradual beginning to the week for the bond market. The year’s lowest trade volume was recorded, albeit by a trivial margin. There was little to no disturbance noticed as well. A slight progress marked the overnight session, only half of which continued till the end of the day. However, this slight uptick by no means substantially altered the existing scenario of bonds experiencing a gentle upward trend while looking for a temporary peak to establish a wider lateral pattern in anticipation of significant upcoming developments in the following three weeks.

Economic Data/ Events

Sales of Previously Owned Homes

3.78m compared to 3.82m estimate, 3.82m previously

Public Opinion on Economy

78.8 compared to 70.0 estimate, 69.7 previously

Predicted Inflation for the Following Year

Decreased by 0.2%

Inflation Forecast for the Next 5 Years

Decreased by 0.1%

Synopsis on Market Movement

09:48 AM: Considerable strength observed overnight. 10-yr treasury yield lowered by 4bps to 4.09 and MBS increased by nearly one quarter point.

01:32 PM: 10-yr treasury yields have mildly increased from lows of 4.075 to 4.101 (still lower by 2.9bps on the day). MBS are still up by 5 ticks (.16), however, down one-eight from the highs.

03:23 PM: Increased losses leading up to 2 pm, but rebounded from the weakest levels at the 3 pm CME closing. 10-yr yields lowered by 2.9bps at 4.103. MBS are up one-eight on the day.

“Strategist Predicts Brighter Economic Outlook: A Departure from Economic Collapse Fears”

Contrary to popular belief, Steven Wieting from Citi maintains that it’s not necessary for the world economy to experience a “collapse” to achieve inflation targets and sustainable expansion. The implication is that economic stability and growth can be reached through alternative strategies and methods.

“Decisive Week: How Upcoming Events Could Shape the Direction of Federal Rate Policy”

Confidence has waned in the market regarding the Federal Reserve’s preparedness to initiate reductions in interest rates.

“Strong Spending Trends and Decreasing Delinquencies: Insights from American Express CEO”

Indicators of robust consumer expenditure somewhat contradict the ongoing presence of inflation.

“Rising Consumer Sentiment Amidst Dipping Inflation: Insights from the University of Michigan Survey”

The Consumer Survey of Consumers, executed by the University of Michigan, demonstrated a score of 78.8 for the given month; this notably represents the pinnacle level since July 2021.

“Emerging Recession Shadows: Analyzing the Downturn in British Retail Sales”

In December, there was a decline in sales volumes by 3.2%, a figure significantly higher than the anticipated 0.5% decrease.

“An Insightful Recap: Key Market Movements and Mortgage Bond Developments – Jan 18, 2024”

The bond market has been relatively stagnant lately, mirroring the Federal Reserve’s wait-and-see attitude. Though the pressing concerns flagged by economic indicators have mollified, the prospect of declining rate momentum has not been definitively affirmed. This reassurance would require persistently tempered economic data. The key metrics to watch are inflation figures and labor market trends. Recent labor market stats showcased the most robust weekly performance for jobless claims in over a year. While this doesn’t dramatically shift rates, it nudged yields to a new top for the past five weeks.

Regarding recent economic data and events, jobless claims stand at 187k versus the predicted 207k and 203k previously. The Philly Fed Index is at -10.6, lower than the anticipated -7, but better than the previous -12.8. Building permits were recorded at 1.495m, slightly better than the forecasted 1.48m. Housing starts were also reported at 1.46m, surpassing the 1.426m projection.

An overview of market movements showed a small improvement overnight, followed by a downturn after the latest set of data. Furthermore, the market demonstrated some bounce back after the New York Stock Exchange’s opening at 9:30 am, but ultimately drifted back into negative territory. Despite a modest Treasury rally, the overall outlook remained slightly weaker. Therefore, these factors point towards a careful observation of the current market dynamics, especially in the wake of economic data releases.

“Unprecedented Decline in Weekly Unemployment Claims – A Reflection of 2024’s Robust Job Market”

For the week concluding on January 13, first-time applications for jobless benefits amounted to 187,000.

“Unearthing the Surge: An 80% Leap in Corporate Debt Defaults in 2023 & Predictions for the Current Year”

In 2023, there was a significant rise in corporations unable to fulfill their debt obligations, with the count escalating to 153 from 85 in the previous year.

“Unveiling Truth: Trump’s Gag Order Appeal Defeated in New York’s Highest Court”

During his business fraud trial, a judge in Manhattan instructed Donald Trump to refrain from launching personal assaults on the members of the judge’s staff.