“Analyzing the Impact: Federal Reserve’s Decision and its Influence on Mortgage Securities Market”

The bond market got off to a sturdy start, experiencing a subtle boost from rises in both Asian and European markets overnight. The chief part of the domestic phase remained steady and unremarkable until a Treasury refunding update at 3pm. Although it wasn’t the official declaration (set for Wednesday), it provided a sneak peek into the future. Remarkably, the forecasted borrowing needs plummeted by over $50 billion for the period– a substantial reduction. The bond market concurred, indicating a prompt decline in yields. Both 10s and MBS concluded the day at their peak levels in a week and a half. Yet, the next direction remains heavily reliant on impending economic data.

Market Activity Breakdown

10:15 AM – A robust overnight rise, currently steadying. 10yr still down 1.9bps at 4.12. MBS increased by 2 ticks (.06).

02:16 PM – Stable throughout the day with a modest outperformance from Treasuries. MBS up an eighth. 10yr down 4.2bps at 4.097.

03:09 PM – Further accrual post TSY refunding notes. A decrease of 6.5bps at 4.047 for 10yr. MBS slightly under a quarter point increment after pointing to illiquidity.

“Predictions and Perspectives: Economists Discuss the Future of Federal Reserves”

As the two-day summit concludes, experts predict the Federal Reserve is not likely to raise interest rates. In the current economic landscape, economists are noting the increasing likelihood of a situation where no rate hikes take place.

“Unraveling the Implications of December 2023’s PCE Inflation Surge: An Insightful Analysis”

It was anticipated that the fundamental personal consumption expenditures price index would see a monthly rise of 0.2% in December and an annual growth of 3% from the previous year.

“Unraveling the Intricacies of Mortgage Market Trends: A Detailed Recap for January 25, 2024”

Understanding the Paradox of Strengthening Bonds Amid Rising GDP

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report usually doesn’t significantly influence the bond or rate markets. Nevertheless, if one could, it’d be the ‘advance’ (the initial release of the three issued each quarter). Significantly, the recent one surpassed the median prediction considerably (3.3 as against 2.0). The economic significance of this surge had potential to raise yields, but surprisingly, bonds strengthened. While certain aspects of the report and other economic announcements have been more bond-centric or more pessimistic, traders have also been influenced by spillages from the European trade, especially the European Central Bank’s unexpected dovish stance.

Economic Data/Events

Unemployment Claims

214k compared to anticipated 200k, 189k previously

Long-Lasting Goods

0.0 against the 1.1 prediction, 5.5 previously

Q4 GDP Figure

3.3%, exceeding the 2.0% expectation

GDP Deflator

1.5, lower than the 2.3 forecasts

Description of Market Movement

At 08:43 AM, seen as mildly stronger after the 8:30am economic data, with a 10-year drop of 4bps at 4.14%. MBS slightly up after adjusting for illiquidity.

At 11:06 AM, noticeable endurance alongside assistance from Europe. A 10-year drop of 5.2bps (4.128), with MBS increasing by 6 ticks (.19).

By 12:20 PM, a touch of weakness observed in Treasuries, which didn’t affect MBS. A 10-year drop of 3.7bps (4.143), with MBS going up 7 ticks (.23).

At 02:30 PM, maintaining near optimal levels after a decent 7-year auction. A 10-year drop of 5.4 bps (4.126), with MBS up 7 ticks (.23).

“Exploring 2024 Housing Market Trends: A Deep Dive into Mortgage and Finance News”

Who can resist a chuckle at the sight of a swearing parrot? Nonetheless, it might not be as amusing when your pet bird proceeds to discuss risqué topics in front of Aunt Beatrice during her Sunday visit. I reckon every Mortgage Loan Originator (LO) can attest to hearing their fair share of colorful language, as their job entails a lot more than just processing loans. They navigate through their client’s financial obligations, assets, and rental insurance until homeownership is accomplished, and even extend their services after loan disbursal.

All across America, individuals are grappling with exorbitantly high homeowner insurance rates. On the next session of The Mortgage Collaborative’s Rundown, we’ll hear from Andrew Hellard, SVP of Products at Matic, who will delve into why homeowner’s insurance costs are on the rise.

Independent Mortgage Banks (IMBs) have not been able to hold on to the servicing as they were strapped for cash. This led to firms like Freedom, Planet Home, AmeriHome, and Pennymac purchasing the servicing. They intend to retain those customers, especially when it comes to refinancing. But will the customers revert back to their original lenders, thus increasing the recapture rate? It may hinge heavily on the initial customer service experience.

Don’t forget to listen to our latest podcast here. This week’s edition is sponsored by LoanCare, renowned for guiding clients and homeowners through market fluctuations for four decades. This mortgage sub-servicer is distinguished for delivering a stellar customer experience, made possible through its personalized and convenient portfolio management tool, LoanCare Analytics™. It prioritizes customer engagement, liquidity, and credit risk, supporting Mortgage Servicing Rights (MSR) investors. The podcast presents an interview with Tom Hutchens from Angel Oak Mortgage Solutions, who shares his real estate market forecast for 2024 and insights on securitizations in the Non-QM segment.

“Lagarde Responds with Pride in Leading ECB Amidst Criticism: An In-Depth Look”

The performance of the individual in question has been underwhelming, according to over fifty percent of the people surveyed, who described it as either “extremely unsatisfactory” or “unsatisfactory”. Furthermore, the ECB union presented her as having a dictatorial style of leadership.

“Decoding the 3.3% GDP Growth in the U.S Economy for Q4 of 2023: An Analysis”

Economists have forecasted a projected growth rate of 2% annually for the Gross Domestic Product in the last quarter of 2023.

“Turkey’s Strategic Play: The Impact of a Continued Interest Hike to Combat Persistent Inflation”

Turkey’s financial regulators continue to struggle against significant inflation, leading to an increase in interest rates.

“Analyzing the Impact of Surprising Inflation Data on Mortgage Bonds: A Detailed Recap”

The most straightforward interpretation of today’s modest bond market slump is as a straightforward response to the primary market factors. The morning brought with it more robust economic data and some unfavorable announcements from the Bank of Canada (BOC), enough to undermine a portion of the strength gained overnight. Furthermore, the afternoon witnessed a disappointingly poor 5-year Treasury auction which further dented the market. Considering the broader scenario, bonds seem to be favouring a tendency towards increased yields this January, which some analysts imply is a cautious strategy in light of the upcoming Federal Reserve decisions and next week’s data release.

Economic Data / Events

S&P Global PMIs

Manufacturing marked at 50.3, surpassing the 47.9 forecast and the previous 47.9.

Services logged at 52.9, higher than the 51.0 predicted and the previous 51.4.

Market Movement Recap

By 09:54 AM, the market was weaker post-data release, with a 10-year yield dip of 1bp for the day at 4.122 and MBS falling 1 tick (.03).

By 11:43 AM, the 5.5 coupons were down 3 ticks (.09) on the day but well above a quarter point from the morning highs, with 10-year yields up 1.5bps to 4.147.

By 01:26 PM, further decline occurred post the 5-year auction, resulting in a 10-year yield increase of 4bps to 4.172, and MBS down 5 ticks (.16).

By 04:06 PM, the market hit new lows with MBS down 6-7 ticks (.19-.22) and 10-year yields up by 5bps to 4.18+.

“Analyzing the Outcome: Thursday’s GDP Report Highlights U.S Economy at Decisive Junction”

The general expectation for the fourth quarter points to a 2% growth in the gross domestic product, adjusted for seasonal variations and annual rates.